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The March Madness Bracket Prediction Chances

   The March Madness Bracket Prediction Chances

March 26, 2021

Whenever the NCAA Tournament rolls around each year, we know that March Madness has arrived. This is now the official name for the college basketball championship, as teams battle for national supremacy, in what has become one of the most thrilling and popular sporting events in the United States. The greatest players in the NBA started out here, before going on to become famous all-time greats and Hall of Fame legends.

But what about those of us who participate in what has become a tradition for millions of Americans? Filling out March Madness brackets has become something of a national phenomenon, say Forbes. While fans of basketball put their knowledge of the game to good use, trying to methodically calculate which teams will perform well, others just try to guess the best they can and hope for the best.

The Random Chance of Guessing Well

When it comes to statistics and probabilities, few are more keenly aware than one of America’s most popular online sportsbooks. Betway offer the latest odds for basketball games, whether it’s for the NBA or the NCAA, plus a host of competitions taking place elsewhere around the world.

Entirely familiar with the numbers which surround sports, a recent blog from Betway also highlighted the statistical chances of March Madness bracket predictions. The aim is to predict all 63 games correctly, and, to date, nobody has ever correctly predicted every result. Indeed, they estimate the chances of that ever happening to be a whopping one in 9.2 quintillion.

To put such a huge number into context, the same blog pointed out that 9.2 quintillion seconds is the equivalent of 292 billion years. Considering the fact that according to scientists, the universe itself has only existed for around 13.8 billion years, the probability surrounding March Madness predictions really does pale into insignificance.

Does Better Knowledge Improve Chances?

While it’s fair to say that random chance from guesswork is one thing, what about predictions made amongst avid fans and followers of basketball? Recent data suggests that each year, around 73 million people fill out more than 170 million March Madness brackets. Many of them do so via mainstream media websites, such as ESPN, CBS Sports, and Fox Sports.

However, a large number also do so via the official tournament website. According to some interesting statistics published at the NCAA.com this year, while nobody has ever managed to successfully predict all 63 March Madness games, the longest verified streak of correct predictions was 49 games. That was by a man from Ohio during the 2019 NCAA Tournament.

Keener knowledge of college basketball history and competitions will undoubtedly help, with any successful predictions, yet the NCAA itself admits that picking all 63 winners is practically impossible. Amongst registered bracket entries for their own March Madness predictions games, they estimate participants having a one in 120.2 billion chance of getting all 63 results correct.

More Chance of Becoming a Pro Baller

Whichever numbers you cling to for the chance of making successful March Madness predictions, whether it’s the one in 9.2 quintillion odds mentioned by Betway, or the optimistic one in 120.2 billion shot estimated by the NCAA, both are next to impossible to reach in reality. Actually, the average high school basketball player has more chance of reaching the NBA.

Amongst around 540,000 men’s high school basketball hopefuls each year, just one in 35 progresses to NCAA college teams. Moving on, less than one in 75 NCAA players makes it all the way to the NBA. As the numbers would suggest, most of us have more of a chance of becoming pro ballers, than successfully predicting March Madness results. Just ponder on that for a while.

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